Why do I say so? Because Dick Morris says Hillary Clinton is finished and cannot win the nomination.
Dick Morris is always thought-provoking, always fascinating, and always wrong. So we’d better get used to thinking of Clinton as the nominee.
To be a little more serious: Morris’ argument seems to rest on the idea that if the Obamatrons get to the convention with more delegates there’s no way the super delegates will vote against him. But that completely ignores the argument the Clintinistas are already preparing: if they come into the convention with more popular votes, and able to argue that they can do better in crucial states in the upcoming general election, giving the nomination to her would be seen as quite legitimate in many eyes.
The McCainiacs are indeed going to have a little trouble getting much attention while all this is going on, of course, but they’ll have plenty of opportunities as the convention gets closer to squeeze in a message of their own.
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Today while driving in one of the wealthiest parts of the area (Kennett Square/Centerville – where home prices are in the millions) the only political signs I saw were for Obama. Also I drove past the most expensive condo complex in DE – where prices range from $750k-$1.25m, and I saw a BMW 7 series with an Obama sticker pull in.
Scott Kirwin’s last blog post..Spray & Pray
The other thing to remember is that a lot of these superdelegates are activists and officeholders. I expect a number of these individuals might be swayed by promises aimed at their respective constituencies. In other words, now is a good time to invest in political pork futures.
–|PW|–
pennywit’s last blog post..Yes, it is all about Ralph
Staying out of this scrum may not be a bad thing, after all.
Wealthy people like that do tend to go for Obama. We already knew that.
My immediate intuition is that Hillary will win the nomination, but it won’t be pretty. Everyone says that there is no way the superdelegates will go against the popular vote but I think that they are underestimating the power the Clintons wield in the Democratic party. If given half a chance, like Hillary winning the popular vote, I expect them to break for Hillary. Of course this could make things very bad for the Democrats in November as betrayed Obama supporters stay home so expect to see something done to mitigate this effect.
Still suspecting Gore/Obama 08 as a ‘heal the party’ ticket. That’s the only prospective Democrat dynasty play on the table. A real chance at a 16 year dynasty is what the party’s powerbrokers care most about. Sixteen years at the top should look good to Obama as well. Gore was a vice presidential victim of a Clinton co-presidency. No way Obama wants to repeat that experience joining a Clinton ticket.
I think calling Morris “always wrong” is not quite right.
He’s right every bit as often as he is wrong.
This is the most interesting coverage of a political campaign that I’ve seen in a long while.
Hillary “won” Texas in spite of Obama actually leaving the state with 8 more delegates than she picked up. If the reverse were true, the news would, of course, all about how Hillary “won Texas.” It’s an interesting dynamic in the news right now. Having anointed and deified Obama, the press is now desperately trying to bring him back to earth, and Hillary will give them all the ammunition she can.
It is questionable if Hillary actually won more Democrat votes in Texas with all the Republican line-crossing anyway.
Last Tuesday began with everyone saying Hillary needed a huge win. With more than 200 delegates up for grabs, Hillary won a decisive total of 8 more delegates than Obama did. In actual delegate comparisons, after her “big win” Hillary actually lost ground in the race because there are a lot fewer delegates up for grabs now, and Hillary has to win an even higher percentage of those left than she needed before Ohio and Texas.
And then she promptly lost Wyoming by an almost 2-1 margin.
Anyone who can objectively analyze these facts and conclude that Hillary is “back in it” needs some remedial math refresher courses.
Hillary is now pointing at Pennsylvania as her next “must win” state. In the meantime, if trends continue, Obama will keep kicking her ass in every other state. And if she wins, she’ll be even further behind in delegates, and yet Hillary-ites will again be shouting “See! She’s relevant!”
I predicted that Hillary would lose Texas. Since Obama took more delegates from that state, I consider my prediction to have been accurate. I predict that Hillary will come to the convention with far fewer pledged delegates than Obama, but with enough to deny Obama from claiming the nomination outright.
If that throws the convention into a brokered back-room deal where Hillary emerges the victor, I can’t see how the party can recover from that in two months. The number of Obama supporters who will stay home on election day will be enough to make McCain a potential favorite in several key states, like Florida.
Nothing could have been worse for the Democrats last week than for Hillary to be declared the “winner” of both Texas and Ohio, but to effectively tie Obama in total delegates. All that is likely to do is intensify the bloody battle between the two and lead to a bitter and divisive convention.
Does anyone remember 1968?
Now we have Democrats splitting into factions over whether to sit, revote or ignore the delegates from Florida and Michigan. This will just become a second front on the Obama/Hillary trench lines. Whatever ends up happening will leave a lot of Michigan and Florida voters feeling disenfranchised. That may not mean much in Michigan, but Florida is no lock for the Democrats in the upcoming election.
In the words of Oliver Hardy, this is a real fine mess the Democrats have created for themselves.
I have to admit I’m loving it.
CosmicConservative’s last blog post..A moment of sanity from the People’s Republic of Boulder?
Dean,
I was reading over at The Weekly Standard today and McCain has a pretty clever plan for keeping himself in the public eye – starting with a very Presidential-looking trip to foreign lands…while the attention will clearly be focused on HillBama for a while, I think that McCain will do himself well…now, as to winning in November…pretty tricky, but not even remotely out of the question.
I think calling Morris “always wrong†is not quite right.
He’s right every bit as often as he is wrong.”
I’m still waiting for Rice to get the Republican nomination so people that purchased Morris’ book, “Condi vs. Hillary” don’t feel like they wasted their money.
I’m with Dean on this one. Morris is a good indicator of where the political winds aren’t blowing. So, if anything, he’s useful for that.
Kevin D.’s last blog post..Obama Is Doomed
I think calling Morris “always wrong†is not quite right.
He’s right every bit as often as he is wrong.
indeed. he’s absolutely right about the clinton’s character, for example. he just has little predictive value. contrast him wiith hitchens who says the nominee will be hillary because its always the ruthless, gutter-wallowing sorts who win…
My immediate intuition is that Hillary will win the nomination, but it won’t be pretty.
“the nominee is a n—-!”
bong!
“i think she said the nominee is near”
/blazing saddles, which happens to be on right now…
Can Morris make everybody wrong just by agreeing with them?
Because that is serious power.
What Hillary accomplished in Ohio and Texas is considered a success only because it came shortly after the conventional wisdom incorrectly predicted that her campaign would completely fall apart. She just did moderately well in a pair of states where she was expected to do better than elsewhere.
But the convenional wisdom does not like to admit making dumb predictions, so it says that Hillary has made a dramatic turnaround.
urthshoe,
Hitchen’s nailed “The Hillary Thing” (The Clinton Thing??) at the end of an interview with Hugh Hewitt:
(Paraphrasing)
“There’s something dreadful and inevitable about people who have no lives outside of the pursuit of power…No hobbies, no interests, not character…They are the ones who never want the metting to end….”
Dick Morris can be interesting because of his experience, but his predictive abilities seem to somehow be BELOW random chance.
Not sure how he does it.
She should have called Dick Cheney to make a few phone calls on her behalf. Or maybe she did, and Dick just laughed and laughed…
you’ll notice, too, that they’re calling pennsylvania a “must” for for now, despite the fact she’s widely expected to do well there. this allows her in advance to continue her ‘comeback’ narrative.
The truth is, neither candidate can win 2,025 delegates without the help of super-delegates — and nobody knows what the superdelegates are gonna do.
More so, the Florida and Michigan potential “do-overs” pose a further set of problems
Long slog to the convention.
Dean,
I may be wrong, but if that happens the Democratic party would not only lose the election, it would implode. It would take the party more than 4 years to regather from that .
We’ll see.
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