I see the heat on Obama to offer something other than platitudes and meaningless vagueness on Iraq is getting more and more intense. So he’s either going to give us a situation in Iraq all but indistinguishable from McCain’s, or… what?
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He does what he has promised his Leftist base and pulls all troops out of Iraq. I’m not sure why Aziz and others are saying he won’t; it’s what he’s promised his base to do. He might fudge about it prior to the election the way Bush fudged about his socially conservative agenda with the euphemism “compassionate conservatism” , but like Bush once he takes power he will fulfill his promise to his base. Sure Iraq will go down the toilet and Baghdad in 2009 will look like Saigon 1975 – but so what? He’ll be president and he will just blame Bush.
If you believe he won’t then I think you’re just kidding yourself. Why wouldn’t he? He’s consistently opposed military action his entire political career; unless of course it’s against our allies like Pakistan.
I use the same rule with Obama that I’d use with anyone else: assume they mean what they say. Don’t assume that their nuttier notions are just red meat tossed to the rubes to get elected, and that they will turn “reasonable” when they get ahold of the reins of power. Give the man credit for his convictions, especially if they aren’t your own.
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Obama will find himself in a much more difficult position as President than as “Presidential hopeful.” He will be getting a severe case of reality shock, just like all Presidents do.
In this case I agree with Dean. Obama is not a stupid man, whatever else he may be. He will be forced to recognize that a precipitous pullout will be dangerous not only for Iraq, but for the world, and he will work on how to spin the message, something he seems quite good at. In the end he’ll blame it all on Bush, keep enough troops there to avoid total meltdown and come out smelling like a rose because the media will carry all the water they need to make him successful.
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Sorry CC I don’t agree. His base won’t let him just like Bush’s base didn’t allow him to stray from their socially conservative agenda. Think “bases” don’t matter? The first Bush presidency proved that they do, and Obama won’t want to be a one-term wonder.
If he gets elected he will pull out of Iraq no matter what.
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Scott:
I don’t know what “base” you think you are referring to, but if you don’t realize that GW Bush sold out his “base” within weeks of appearing in Washington, and that his “base” is thoroughly frustrated with his entire administration with the POSSIBLE exception of his foreign policy, then you don’t know a thing about GW Bush’s base, and that calls into question what you might know about Obama’s.
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I’ll have to agree with CC. Bush has been far more centrist than the media gives him credit for. Stem cell research was a great example. Realize that all Obama has to do is declare the war over, pull out a few of the “Troops” and leave a lot more as “Peacekeepers” and the left will quiet right down. They did for Bill on several occasions. All he has to do is change the terminology from “war” to “peacekeeping” and he’s kept his promise to the antiwar left. He will have ended the war, right?
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CC
His social conservative base – not the fiscal conservatives that backed him.
It’s the base that he appointed two conservative judges to the bench on – or are they like Souter viewed as closet liberals by this “base”? Ditto stem cell research, family planning issues, and other social conservative hot button topics. These were the issues used by Gore and the Dems back in ’00 to paint Bush as too far to the right for the country.
Has he sold out that base? No, he’s p-d off the fiscal conservatives – the ones that never really trusted the Bush’s to begin with.
Bush only stretched away from the Religious Right during the “compassionate conservative” speeches. That was his way of blunting the “extremist” labels the Dems – including myself – used against him at that time.
7 years later and I don’t see the vestiges of anything “compassionate” in his social conservatism. He abandoned that rhetoric as soon as he took office, and returned to his form. He was always more socially conservative than his father – I should qualify that as saying that he was after he straightened out. He remained that way during his governorship and in his campaign.
Bush was at his core a social conservative, and I believe that at his core Obama is a dove who believes that one can negotiate out of any situation. His (brief) political career proves this, and he has consistently stated this. Heck he says he’ll end the war in Iraq first thing in a commercial that just ran on my TV here in the Philly area. Why should I doubt him at his word? What proof do I have that the statements others are latching on to stating he won’t withdraw aren’t Obama’s version of “compassionate conservativism”? His triangulation towards the center for the General?
Obama is not a centerist. I still don’t understand how he could sit in a pew and listen to that racist crap year after year after year. 20 years. But he doesn’t believe all that either?
Uh-huh…
Scott:
I am sure you believe all that. That doesn’t change one iota that it is utterly wrong. The “Religious Right” that you keep talking about has been just as frustrated with Bush’s policy decisions as have been the fiscal conservatives. His stem cell decision was just one example of how they felt betrayed by Bush. In fact during 2004 the big question was whether the “Religious Right” would vote again because of their disaffectation with him. Now it is probably true that fiscal conservatives are MORE upset with Bush than the “Religious Right” but both are frustrated and neither feels like they got what they voted for in 2000.
However, I will admit that the Religious Right held their noses and voted for Bush in 2004, and I’m not sure they will hold their noses and vote for McCain. But the more Obama’s true opinions are publicized, the more nose-holding will be going on.
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