Mark this prediction down:Â
McCaffrey said the question is how to stage the withdrawal. “We’re going to see some Iraqi two-star general in charge of Iraq three years from today,” he predicted, some “hot-shot division commander” who seizes control. The best hope is that it is not another Saddam Hussein.
 Somehow I doubt Iraqis who braved car bombs to vote in three elections are going to accept that lying down, especially the Kurds who have a semi-autonomous army. Additionally, the tribal leaders of all sects and the Shia clergy are backing democracy, and new provincial elections will further cement Iraq’s identity as a democratic republic.
I put this at about the same likelihood as Juan Cole’s 2004 prediction that Iraq would never hold elections.
 UPDATE: An example of why McCaffrey is wrong:
This time last year, there were deep booms and the rattle of extended firefights from virtually all around the compass throughout the day and night. Such incidents are now a rare occurrence in a week.
Some of the reasons for this progress are better known than others.
…
The Popular Mobilization Committee (PMC) was launched in February 2007. It now supervises the activity of some 3,000 volunteers around Baghdad. They, in turn, operate a localized system of 120 neighborhood watch committees. They provide intelligence, report trouble, help settle returnees to their homes and the like. They have been crucial in stabilizing the city neighborhood by neighborhood.
…
Through the PMC, Sunni mosques are returned to Sunnis. Intersectarian prayers are held. The PMC also monitors the prisons, and provides legal help to citizens, as requested by the local committees. To avoid favoritism and the appearance of patronage, “we decided that whoever does the most work gets to lead the committees,” says Mr. Chalabi. As a result, even the most hostile sectarian areas welcome his efforts as practical rather than political, and above all as efficacious.
I especially like this part:
The BSC has gained a considerable reputation around Baghdad for taking government ministers into neglected areas, television cameras in tow, to shame the government into action. Mr. Chalabi’s political party, the Iraqi National Congress, also recently launched a weekly newspaper entirely about services, in which citizens get to sound off and government officials are asked to respond.
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McCaffrey’s always been on the pessimistic side–which doesn’t make him wrong, of course, or suggest anything sinister about his analysis. He’s obviously an honorable and smart man.
But I agree with your analysis: I don’t think this is what’s going to happen, or if it does, there will still be an elected government that works with whatever charismatic military leader keeps order.
The best hope for Iraq was liberal democracy; the worst case was something as bad or worse than Saddam. Reasonable likelihood seems a limited, illiberal electoral democracy and federation.
Excellent comment, Dean.
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