I find this story very depressing if true. But I find the entire Obamanon depressing; in the first serious Presidential candidacy who happens to be black, why did it have to be a callow youth with a very weak party-line left-liberal voting record?
*Update*: On the other hand, Bob Beckel, who’s usually a sober and rational observer, thinks it’s McCain who can’t win. I guess I’ll have to mull that over, but I honestly think McCain will have no trouble defeating Obama. In fact, I’ve been saying and writing that for many months now.
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Dean,
How much do you think McCain’s age will work against him?
I think Beckel is mistaken- he’s really listing all the reasons McCain should not have won the Republican nomination. As for McCain trying to shore up the Conservative base- he’s mostly just reminding those conservatives who DO like him, WHY they like him.
While the Spite wing of the Right will doubtless be an issue in the general election I really don’t think they’re enough to sink his candidacy at this point..
J.A. Eddy’s last blog post..Decisions Made
From the second link: “Bob Beckel managed Walter Mondale’s 1984 presidential campaign.” Yep, there’s a man who knows how elections are won!
And it’s interesting how the first link makes much of the supposed 15% of whites who won’t vote for Senator Obama because he’s black, but never mentions the percentage of blacks who will vote for him for the same reason.
I looked at the field of Democratic candidates and decided that six months ago. The Democrats have shown a positive genius lately for glomming onto unelectable candidates and convincing themselves that their candidate is the best ever.
The fact that Mondale lost in 1984 doesn’t mean someone who managed his Presidential campaign isn’t a very smart and astute observer. It may, however, indicate that he’s indulging in some wishful thinking in the article I linked. I have a hard time believing that most of the Republican base will just stay home, as much as some on the right were moaning about McCain.
Just as I have a very hard time believing most Democrats will stay home in November just because they’re unhappy Obama got the nomination instead of Clinton, or vice-versa.
I believe that either Obama or Clinton will have a huge advantage over McCain this fall. Beyond the obvious reasons like a weak economy, fatigue over the Iraq war, and some deserved criticism of Bush policies, the big factor is that the country is ready for a change.
America likes to do that from time to time, 8 or 12 years for a single party is about as much as you can ever expect. I think that is a good thing, a necessary balancing factor.
That said, I think Obama is a much weaker candidate then Clinton, and if McCain is going to pull an upset against anyone it will be him. Some of that would be racial animus (although I think a lot of those folks would have voted Republican anyway) and some of it is weaknesses that belong simply to Obama. A big part of it though it that while American’s like periodic change, they don’t like big changes. I am not talking about Obama being black, but about Obama having become almost a messianic figure. That will turn a lot of people away from his candidacy (and will also probably be mistakenly analyzed as ‘racism.’)
Dave Justus’s last blog post..Pennsylvania Primary
I have followed Bob Beckel’s predictions for many years, and his record is as bad as it gets. He also thought that both Bushes had no chance, right through election day. He even thought that Reagan had no chance. But the more important thing is that there is no credible prediction possible more than six months before election day. There is an entire campaign yet to be run. All kinds of things can happen. It is even possible that Obama might win.
But I would not bet on him. Not because he is black. Because he is too closely associated with white hating racists and America hating leftists. Long before he could win an election, all of the conservatives who might otherwise have sat this one out will get themselves down to the polls and protect the White House from this guy and his friends. That’s not racist, that’s conservative, as in not willing to take such a chance. At least we know who McCain is, and we know that he (and his wife) love this country, and will do nothing crazy that might hurt her due to some hidden agenda or ideology.
That’s not a prediction. That’s a bet.
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