Comments on: Predictions For Tomorrow TODAY http://deanesmay.com/2008/05/06/predictions-for-tomorrow/ Defending the liberal tradition in history, science, and philosophy. Sat, 11 Feb 2012 13:24:07 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: myxyzptlyk http://deanesmay.com/2008/05/06/predictions-for-tomorrow/#comment-155582 myxyzptlyk Tue, 06 May 2008 19:19:23 +0000 http://deanesmay.com/2008/05/06/predictions-for-tomorrow/#comment-155582 By splitting the two states Obama comes out the victor because he will likely win NC by a bigger margin than Clinton who will win by maybe 4-5 points.   So a net gain of delegates for Obama. By using the CNN calculator and using realistic predictions on future primaries all Obama needs from the uncommitted delegates is not even 50% of them to pass the magic number of 2025.    The fact that he is now getting over 2/3 of the remaining bodes well for him. Only a major gaffe by Obama keeps him from the nomination.  If Obama should pull out Indiana, it's race over. By splitting the two states Obama comes out the victor because he will likely win NC by a bigger margin than Clinton who will win by maybe 4-5 points.   So a net gain of delegates for Obama.

By using the CNN calculator and using realistic predictions on future primaries all Obama needs from the uncommitted delegates is not even 50% of them to pass the magic number of 2025.    The fact that he is now getting over 2/3 of the remaining bodes well for him.

Only a major gaffe by Obama keeps him from the nomination. 

If Obama should pull out Indiana, it’s race over.

]]> By: Maniakes http://deanesmay.com/2008/05/06/predictions-for-tomorrow/#comment-155562 Maniakes Tue, 06 May 2008 16:07:34 +0000 http://deanesmay.com/2008/05/06/predictions-for-tomorrow/#comment-155562 Yeah, there's a definitite handicapping factor. Clinton's expected to win Indiana and Obama's expected to win NC, so a squeeker in either state could be spun as a moral victory for the underdog. Yeah, there’s a definitite handicapping factor. Clinton’s expected to win Indiana and Obama’s expected to win NC, so a squeeker in either state could be spun as a moral victory for the underdog.

]]> By: Dave Justus http://deanesmay.com/2008/05/06/predictions-for-tomorrow/#comment-155539 Dave Justus Tue, 06 May 2008 12:10:43 +0000 http://deanesmay.com/2008/05/06/predictions-for-tomorrow/#comment-155539 Certainly those are the only likely scenarios, if you discount the Zombie apocalypse ruining the voting, which is something I never do.  However, I think Clinton winning Indiana comfortably and Obama narrowly getting by in North Carolina will weaken his position, not strengthen it.  If he loses Indiana, he has lost another of the all important battleground states in the general.  If he barely wins North Carolina, it shows that his weakness amoung white voters is so great as to make it nearly impossible for him to win the general.  Both things that Super Delegates will be looking at.  That doesn't mean he isn't still the presumptive nominee in this case, but it is a weaker position then it was before.  <em>Dave Justus's last blog post..<a href='http://www.davejustus.com/2008/05/06/indiana-and-north-carolina/' rel="nofollow">Indiana and North Carolina</a></em> Certainly those are the only likely scenarios, if you discount the Zombie apocalypse ruining the voting, which is something I never do. 

However, I think Clinton winning Indiana comfortably and Obama narrowly getting by in North Carolina will weaken his position, not strengthen it.  If he loses Indiana, he has lost another of the all important battleground states in the general.  If he barely wins North Carolina, it shows that his weakness amoung white voters is so great as to make it nearly impossible for him to win the general.  Both things that Super Delegates will be looking at.  That doesn’t mean he isn’t still the presumptive nominee in this case, but it is a weaker position then it was before. 

Dave Justus’s last blog post..Indiana and North Carolina

]]> By: Andrew Ian Dodge http://deanesmay.com/2008/05/06/predictions-for-tomorrow/#comment-155536 Andrew Ian Dodge Tue, 06 May 2008 11:39:01 +0000 http://deanesmay.com/2008/05/06/predictions-for-tomorrow/#comment-155536 Nope those scenarios work nicely. I think it will probably be Clinton in Indiana and she loses a squeeker in NC.  Nope those scenarios work nicely. I think it will probably be Clinton in Indiana and she loses a squeeker in NC. 

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