It’s another victory-through-seeming-defeat for the Man Who Cannot Lose:
BAGHDAD – Hundreds of women in black abayas crowd outdoor food markets, snapping up groceries and fresh vegetables. Stores are open again. Children play soccer on dirt fields until dusk — or later, when there’s electricity.
This is Sadr City, where black-clad militiamen of radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr‘s Mahdi Army once enforced discipline across the sprawling slum of 3 million people — half of Baghdad’s population. The Iraqi army won control of the district in May after weeks of battles that damaged scores of houses and emptied the streets.
“Security is better without the Mahdi Army,” said a 42-year-old resident who wanted to be identified only by his nickname, Abu Israa. “We don’t want them back.”Â
By making his militia unpopular and surrendering control of Sadr City to the Iraqi government, Sadr has enabled the area to experience a renaissance that was otherwise impossible. The man is a diabolical genius.
I only hope some mainstream analysts have the courage to recognize his acumen.
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My biggest fear is that this culminates in his well-planned martyrdom somewhere in Iran, which will lead to his eventual victory in ways we can even barely begin to understand with our befuddled Western White Man imaginations.
Wheels within wheels! We should never have tried fighting this man. It’s becoming increasingly clear that he’s lulling us into a true sense of security so his real plan can unfold.
Al-Sadr from the beginning has been opposed to the US occupation of Iraq. He has wanted US forces out of Iraq sooner rather than later. He is now putting a lot of pressure on the Iraqi government over the security pack it is negotiating with the US. Al-Sadr is stirring up opposition to an agreement that allows for a long term US troop presences in Iraq. This is probably the reason that al-Maliki is talking about timetables for withdrawl of US forces.
There may be several things at work here. First Al-Sadr has never had very good control over the Mahdi Army. The Mahdi Army took control of Sadr city to protect the residents from al-Qaeda and other Sunni milatias, which are no longer a threat. Many of the worst elements of the Mahdi Army turned to Iran for arms and training to fight the Sunni threat. Al-Sadr is an Iraqi nationalist and is opposed to Iranian influence in Iraq also.Â
Al-Sadr may be thinking that the quickest way to get US troops to leave at this point is to have his Mahdi Army stand down and disappear with the worst, Iranian influenced elements arrested or killed by the government. With the threat of the Sunni resistance and the Mahdi Army gone, the US does not have a strong reason to stay in Iraq and he can pressure the al-Maliki government to come up with a time table for US withdrawal.
A US withdrawal from Iraq has been al-Sadr’s goal from the beginning. I think he has now chosen a more peaceful, democratic path towards that goal. That should be a great victory for democracy in Iraq.
This is probably the reason that al-Maliki is talking about timetables for withdrawl of US forces.
Yeah… by 2011. Meanwhile, the U.S. Army says we’ll be out of combat by summer ’09.
That isn’t a withdrawal, it’s a victory parade.
A US withdrawal from Iraq has been al-Sadr’s goal from the beginning.
Prefereably, a US withdrawal that left him in charge, or at least with the most guns behind him. Instead, his “army” has been shattered and discredited. He can still play the “fight the occupier” card for the elections, but that’s not going to have the cachet it did last time around.
That should be a great victory for democracy in Iraq.
Indeed.
bin Laden wanted us out of Saudi, too.
You’ll note that he’s not claiming victory for our departure.
I’m often surprised by how often people forget that our intervention to rescue Iraq from its fascist rulers (Saddam & Co) also allowed us to remove our troop presence from Saudi soil, which removed a major complaint of those who claimed we were dishonoring Mecca and Medina by our presence in that nation. We ain’t there no more, because we no longer need to protect them from Saddam.
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