But at this point in time, I don’t think Obama shall win. Which means that I hope Biden does not have to give up his senate seat for this vice presidential run.

As for Clinton, she has the loyalty of a significant block of Democratic Party voters. I predict she will damn Obama with faint praise. If he loses, she will be in excellent position to get her party’s nomination in 2012 for a run against either a then-76 year old McCain or his successor, if McCain stands down.

In the meantime, she will be a leading player in a senate controlled by the Democrats. If Obama loses, which I think she is counting on, the spotlight of her party will be on her for four years. She will have an opportunity to cook up all kinds of usefule legislation that, even in the face of likely veto by McCain, will make her and not Obama the de facto leader of her party.

McCain’s best choice for vice president, by far, would be his old senate buddy Lieberman. It would amount to a winning bipartisan presidency and rip away from the Democrats the jewish vote, which has been significant for that party since FDR’s first presidency in 1932.

Nevertheless, if McCain wins this election and stands down in 2012 on age considerations, Lieberman may have difficulties getting the Republican nomination. His domestic policy background is far too liberal for most of the Republican Party’s main voting blocs.
 
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI

Most failed Vice Presidential candidates don’t go on to become President, but that’s because not many people get to become President. These days the office has evolved to a point where it has numerous attractions. Again, my point is, in what way would it hurt Senator Clinton to take the slot? The worst that happens is she’s an interesting footnote in history; the best is, she becomes President.

I mean, how many Senators from New York are actually remembered by history? Heck I can only think of two or three of them; Pat Moynihan, Hillary Clinton, and Chuck Schumer are the only ones that come to mind. Oh, and Bobby Kennedy. That’s it.

Offhand, I cannot think of any such candidate in the past century or more who went on either to win a presidential election or even to get elected vice president. Indeed, the very names of most of them have faded from memory.

Moreover, most vice presidents elected as such drifted off to the obscurities of private life following completion of their vice presidential terms.

The only vice presidents who made any national dent where those elected to the presidency in their own right, or who inherited that job upon the death of their predecessor.

Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI

Basically, as you note, if she stays in the Senate then she has to wait four years to run again, assuming that McCain wins or Obama wins but doesn’t run again in 2012 for some reason. A 2012 candidacy might work well for her, but what are the odds? Maybe, maybe not; the world is littered with failed Presidential candidates. 2016 is really far out, and by then she’ll be 69 years old, which is certainly *not* too old, but there are an awful lot of people that age who really wouldn’t want to work that hard (running for President is practically a 365 day a year, 24 hour a day job, almost as much as actually being President is).

This year, her Senate seat is not up. She will be running for re-election to the Senate in 2012. So she’d have to effectively run two campaigns that year, which can be done–just ask Joe Lieberman–but ain’t easy. So if she’s the Veep nominee this year, then she stays in the Senate no problem if the ticket loses, otherwise she gets promoted to the Vice Presidency. If elevated to the Vice Presidency, she instantly makes history as the first female to ever have that job and be President of the Senate, and via several possible routes may suddenly find herself President (almost all of them tragic in circumstance for the country, but still quite possible), and is also an instantly more credible Presidential candidate if a President Obama decides for whatever reason not to run in 2012, or a more credible candidate with less work to do in 2016 if Obama completes two terms (and she would almost certainly have President Obama’s support in such an initiative, which would be invaluable).

Basically, she’s got 8 ways from Sunday of becoming President, either by instant tragic promotion or at least by having a lot of the legwork done for him if she runs as a Vice President seeking the job. At bare minimum she gets to keep her Senate seat regardless of WHAT happens this November. At best, she makes history as a big part of a history-making administration and may just become President.

Why would she say no to any of that? At worst she retires after four years from the Vice Presidency, with an impressive historical legacy and a dandy pension and plenty of non-profit and corporate work to do with her husband.

What’s staying in the Senate get her, except more time as a junior Senator?

There is an old saying that the Vice Presidency is a job that almost no one wants and yet almost no one turns down if it’s offered. The reasons are manifold, but they all boil down to: it’s a position with little power but an awful lot of potential.

I guess Joe will be spending time away from Delaware – as usual.

If she accepts and Obama wins, she has to live at the Naval Observatory until 2016. If he loses, well, members of losing tickets don’t fare well in the Democratic Party.

If she doesn’t and Obama wins, she stays in the Senate until 2016. If he loses, she only has to wait until 2012.

So if he wins it’s at best a wash, if he loses it’s a big minus. I don’t think she’d take it.

I continue to think his smartest choice is Senator Clinton, and that his best way to do that will be to announce it at the convention.

But I do think Biden as a VP pick would be what’s often terms a ‘target rich environment’.

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