Like the authors of that article and other "save the world for democracy and save Europe from  Russia" zealots, you may perhaps be reading more into Europe’s failing to back up Bush’s, Rice’s and McCain’s threats regarding Gruzia than is indicated by present west and central european dependence on Russia’s vast oil supply.
First, any country or group of countries that needs 1.2 million barrels of oil per day always finds it more economical to get it direct from the oil fields via a pipeline than shipped by tanker halfway around the world.
Second, Russia’s real threat, and especially to former parts of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union that broke loose when that entity collapsed, is not the oil supply, but the ability of its land armies, when mobilized, to smash through any defenses that conceivably be put in their way. The ultimate truth is that there is only one other superpower on this planet outside the United States, at least until China catches up, as it shortly will do so. That superpower is great Russia.
And if great Russia next decides to carve a land route to its city and territory of Kaliningrad on the Baltic sea, they will do just that, and nobody will start World War III to stop them.
And if great Russia next decides to annex the eastern — and Russian-populated part of Ukraina, they will do just that, and nobody will start World War III to stop them.
Russians — unlike people playing Texas Hold’em — don’t bluff as at a poker table. They first make certain they have the power to back up their moves. Then suddenly the tank armies roll while the finges stay within reach of the thermonuclear launch switches.
You ought to have read what Mikhail Gorbachev wrote in the New York Times a few weeks ago. His country — under tsarism, communism or a capitalist oligarchy — has what it considers vital interests in and around its "near abroad" region.
Start putting unfriendly regimes around the periphery of their longest borders on this planet, and they will make you seriously regret you tried it. And this is precisely the crap that George H W Bush, Willian Jefferson Clinton and George W Bush and their administrations have been trying to jam down Russia’s unwilling throat since 1991.
Their days of post-USSR weakness, confusion and degradation are over. They are re-assembling their traditional overwhelming power, and they will use it if challenged close to their heartland.
In short, do this on or around their boarderlands, and one of their Kennedys will call your bluff just as JFK did when Khrushchev tried it with the USA in Cuba in 1962.
And when that day comes, the president of the United States of this country — regardless of who is elected – will sidle away from the confrontation exactly the way Khrushchev did. Because nobody in power here is going to start the world’s final fiery nuclear convulsion over some piece of shit quasi-republic in the Caucasus mountains, any more than anybody in power there would have ended everything for the sake of a piece of shit island in the Caribbean.
It may not sound nice or even friendly. But that’s the way the real world really works, when push comes to shove.
And writing as a citizen of a similar great country with vital interests to be protected around our “near abroad” lands, I would not expect Russia under any leadership to do anything different from what I have described here.
In fact, I applaud them for it. Because just as I don’t want their imperialism to threaten us in and around where we live, I don’t want our imperialism to threaten them in and around where they live.
I find it hilarious that we are currently occupying a country for our own interests and we choose to condemn others for doing the same. I hope the next president has a better grasp of diplomacy than this.
Arnold: I’ve never thought my belief in democracy had much to do with idealism; it has a lot more to do with empirical facts about democracies.
JRogge: What those purposes are is an important question, no? It’s clearly we did not go to Iraq for oil, but we certainly did go to help topple a dictator and mass-murderer and an international terrorist sponsor, and to help those people build a democratic state. And you know, if that’s what Russia were doing, I wouldn’t have much objection.
Odd I remember the argument for war being that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction and that he was a threat as evidenced by his behavior towards his own people. The regime change thing came after the first wave of troops blew out his army. We never went in there for regime change it was an afterthought.
Russia is doing this because building cold war alliances against Russia alongside their own boarders is a threat to them. They don’t want little NATO satellites surrounding them. They see it as a threat and they have had enough of the tomfoolery going on there.
Honestly, we have enough problems here that are never addressed because our leadership insists on playing grab-ass in other countries. Let’s help Americans and let Georgia rot. Seriously, we need to stop screwing around with other people.
Adding a note to what jrogge is trying to tell you, Dean:
If we had not begun messing around with Russia’s borderlands to begin with, parts of what used to be the Republic of Gruzia would not have been dismembered.
Abkhazia and South Ossetia are now de facto autonomous dependencies of the Russian state, And that status is in the process of being hardened by the Russian state and army with the wildly enthusiastic willingness of the akkhazi and ossetin populations. Exactly as they were for many centuries. Because Russia always was the protector of these small peoples against their own local enemies, in this case the Gruze.
In Iraq, the same thing will happen one day with Kurdistan. Irrespective of our policies in Iraq and all the blood we have spilled there.
Arnold says: "Russians — unlike people playing Texas Hold’em — don’t bluff as at a poker table. They first make certain they have the power to back up their moves…"
That’s not exactly true. The Russians have been playing this game like poker, or chess, watching our moves, evaluating how we respond to threats.
They’ve observed our reaction to 9/11, and how we appeased the oil ticks who sponsored the attacks. From that, they realized that our response to aggression from oil producing ‘allies’ is abject groveling, which, of course, encouraged them to be more aggressive.
They also noted Europe’s tepid reactions to Russian threats, and to numerous assassinations of anti-Russian dissidents and reporters.
They also noted that we’ve lost the ability to effectively deal with any nuclear confrontation. If we’re intimidated by an absurd punk like Ahmindinijad, if we’re willing to appease a clown like Khaddaffi, the Russians know we’re not capable of recognizing a bluff when we see one. Just the mere hint of the word nuke makes our leaders wet their collective pants.Â
Unlike Iran, Libya, Saudi Arabia or the UAE, Russia is a genuine player, an enemy with a real army, real soldiers and educated, intelligent leaders. If we allow ourselves to be publicly humiliated by clowns, the Russians are going take advantage of the situation.
After a few years of observing our behavior, it’s no surprise that the Russians decided to stomp all over Georgia. After our weak response, I expect them to do something like this again. It’s no surprise that genuinely democratic countries in the area, like the Czech republic, are worried.
{ 6 comments }
Like the authors of that article and other "save the world for democracy and save Europe from  Russia" zealots, you may perhaps be reading more into Europe’s failing to back up Bush’s, Rice’s and McCain’s threats regarding Gruzia than is indicated by present west and central european dependence on Russia’s vast oil supply.
First, any country or group of countries that needs 1.2 million barrels of oil per day always finds it more economical to get it direct from the oil fields via a pipeline than shipped by tanker halfway around the world.
Second, Russia’s real threat, and especially to former parts of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union that broke loose when that entity collapsed, is not the oil supply, but the ability of its land armies, when mobilized, to smash through any defenses that conceivably be put in their way. The ultimate truth is that there is only one other superpower on this planet outside the United States, at least until China catches up, as it shortly will do so. That superpower is great Russia.
And if great Russia next decides to carve a land route to its city and territory of Kaliningrad on the Baltic sea, they will do just that, and nobody will start World War III to stop them.
And if great Russia next decides to annex the eastern — and Russian-populated part of Ukraina, they will do just that, and nobody will start World War III to stop them.
Russians — unlike people playing Texas Hold’em — don’t bluff as at a poker table. They first make certain they have the power to back up their moves. Then suddenly the tank armies roll while the finges stay within reach of the thermonuclear launch switches.
You ought to have read what Mikhail Gorbachev wrote in the New York Times a few weeks ago. His country — under tsarism, communism or a capitalist oligarchy — has what it considers vital interests in and around its "near abroad" region.
Start putting unfriendly regimes around the periphery of their longest borders on this planet, and they will make you seriously regret you tried it. And this is precisely the crap that George H W Bush, Willian Jefferson Clinton and George W Bush and their administrations have been trying to jam down Russia’s unwilling throat since 1991.
Their days of post-USSR weakness, confusion and degradation are over. They are re-assembling their traditional overwhelming power, and they will use it if challenged close to their heartland.
In short, do this on or around their boarderlands, and one of their Kennedys will call your bluff just as JFK did when Khrushchev tried it with the USA in Cuba in 1962.
And when that day comes, the president of the United States of this country — regardless of who is elected – will sidle away from the confrontation exactly the way Khrushchev did. Because nobody in power here is going to start the world’s final fiery nuclear convulsion over some piece of shit quasi-republic in the Caucasus mountains, any more than anybody in power there would have ended everything for the sake of a piece of shit island in the Caribbean.
It may not sound nice or even friendly. But that’s the way the real world really works, when push comes to shove.
And writing as a citizen of a similar great country with vital interests to be protected around our “near abroad” lands, I would not expect Russia under any leadership to do anything different from what I have described here.
In fact, I applaud them for it. Because just as I don’t want their imperialism to threaten us in and around where we live, I don’t want our imperialism to threaten them in and around where they live.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI
. Â
I find it hilarious that we are currently occupying a country for our own interests and we choose to condemn others for doing the same. I hope the next president has a better grasp of diplomacy than this.
Arnold: I’ve never thought my belief in democracy had much to do with idealism; it has a lot more to do with empirical facts about democracies.
JRogge: What those purposes are is an important question, no? It’s clearly we did not go to Iraq for oil, but we certainly did go to help topple a dictator and mass-murderer and an international terrorist sponsor, and to help those people build a democratic state. And you know, if that’s what Russia were doing, I wouldn’t have much objection.
Odd I remember the argument for war being that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction and that he was a threat as evidenced by his behavior towards his own people. The regime change thing came after the first wave of troops blew out his army. We never went in there for regime change it was an afterthought.
Russia is doing this because building cold war alliances against Russia alongside their own boarders is a threat to them. They don’t want little NATO satellites surrounding them. They see it as a threat and they have had enough of the tomfoolery going on there.
Honestly, we have enough problems here that are never addressed because our leadership insists on playing grab-ass in other countries. Let’s help Americans and let Georgia rot. Seriously, we need to stop screwing around with other people.
Adding a note to what jrogge is trying to tell you, Dean:
If we had not begun messing around with Russia’s borderlands to begin with, parts of what used to be the Republic of Gruzia would not have been dismembered.
Abkhazia and South Ossetia are now de facto autonomous dependencies of the Russian state, And that status is in the process of being hardened by the Russian state and army with the wildly enthusiastic willingness of the akkhazi and ossetin populations. Exactly as they were for many centuries. Because Russia always was the protector of these small peoples against their own local enemies, in this case the Gruze.
In Iraq, the same thing will happen one day with Kurdistan. Irrespective of our policies in Iraq and all the blood we have spilled there.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI
Arnold says: "Russians — unlike people playing Texas Hold’em — don’t bluff as at a poker table. They first make certain they have the power to back up their moves…"
That’s not exactly true. The Russians have been playing this game like poker, or chess, watching our moves, evaluating how we respond to threats.
They’ve observed our reaction to 9/11, and how we appeased the oil ticks who sponsored the attacks. From that, they realized that our response to aggression from oil producing ‘allies’ is abject groveling, which, of course, encouraged them to be more aggressive.
They also noted Europe’s tepid reactions to Russian threats, and to numerous assassinations of anti-Russian dissidents and reporters.
They also noted that we’ve lost the ability to effectively deal with any nuclear confrontation. If we’re intimidated by an absurd punk like Ahmindinijad, if we’re willing to appease a clown like Khaddaffi, the Russians know we’re not capable of recognizing a bluff when we see one. Just the mere hint of the word nuke makes our leaders wet their collective pants.Â
Unlike Iran, Libya, Saudi Arabia or the UAE, Russia is a genuine player, an enemy with a real army, real soldiers and educated, intelligent leaders. If we allow ourselves to be publicly humiliated by clowns, the Russians are going take advantage of the situation.
After a few years of observing our behavior, it’s no surprise that the Russians decided to stomp all over Georgia. After our weak response, I expect them to do something like this again. It’s no surprise that genuinely democratic countries in the area, like the Czech republic, are worried.
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