Straight polling figures, same methodology as last time:
As before, only states where one candidate has a pure majority are colored. States where the balance is held by undecided voters are yellow.
And with the Shy Tory adjustment, moving 1.5% from Obama’s column to McCain’s:
Finally, here is my best guess as to what we’ll see in the papers Wednesday morning. I take the Shy Tory adjusted figures, and allocate the undecideds in a 2:1 ratio in McCain’s favor:
My prediction is Obama wins a narrow majority in the Electoral College. I’m still hoping for a McCain win, and I think it’s still possible (Colorado and Nevada only barely go for Obama in this projection), but it doesn’t look likely right now (Virginia and Ohio flip the other direction just as easily).
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So, we have accounted for the "shy tory" effect, but what about the "Bradley Effect" ?
I tell you, the shear awesomeness of watching liberal heads explode would be indescribable if McCain pulls this out.
I mean how on earth could THE ONE lose ? Especially with his pals at ACORN helping him out with so many "extra" votes.
"I, for one, welcome our new socialist Overlords."
Figure in a couple years there ought to be good money in building Reeducation Camps for those snared by the the Civilian Security Force. Maybe I can snare a lucrative gruel concession, too! I mean, how expensive is sawdust and gypsum anyhow?
In all seriousness, in the likely event of an Obama victory and Democrat sweep I’ll be very disappointed, may even schedule a bender Saturday night (Yes, my schedule is THAT tight what with all the work I have to do in this terrible Booooossshhhhh economy), then get on with my long-held practice of ignoring Washington DC until the next round of Congressional Elections.
I figure by then the overwhelming Democratic majority in the NH legislature and its Democratic governor will have rammed through an income tax, reneged on any promise to repeal the state-wide property tax and we all ought to be ready to throw the bums out (all NH public offices stand for reelection every two years from the governor on down), assuming the GOP up here can put forth anything more than the same old stuff that got voted out in 2006 and 2008.
At the national level it will take longer because the Democrats won’t be able to do as much- remember they are not an organized political party. They’re Democrats. :)
Brownshirts and Re-Education camps? You guys have a great sense of humor and that’s why I like reading this site so much.
I think the Bradley Effect is mostly dead. We didn’t see a measurable Bradley Effect in the primaries; IIRC, the surprises in the Democratic primaries are all explainable by undecideds breaking one way or the other.
Your final matches my alternate best-case for McCain. I’m giving McCain OH, FL and PA, and while my projection is speculative with an Obama victory in IN, GA and MT, even if Obama loses those three (admittedly longshots) he still wins. I just dont see any realistic pathway for McCain.
I just recalcuted with new polls released this morning, which flips Virginia to Obama by the narrowest of narrow margins (.03%) with all other states the same as above, making the tally 291-247, which is pretty close to your projection even though we’ve got several states different.
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