post-election musings

by Aziz Poonawalla on November 5, 2008

in Politics

I’ve some post-election musings to share, including some hard data on why Obama’s victory is rightly called a “mandate” and a reflection of how the worldwide jubilation today reminds me of the first few days after 9-11, when the world last stood united with America.

{ 14 comments }

1 CosmicConservative November 5, 2008 at 11:31 am

"…reminds me of the first few days after 9-11, when the world last stood united with America."

And if you think it is any more sincere, more substantive or will last any longer, then you are truly fooling yourself Aziz. Just as this nation fooled itself yesterday.

CosmicConservative’s last blog post..A beautiful new day?

2 Brian Tiemann November 5, 2008 at 11:45 am

I have to agree with CC there. I do, however, think you’re right in declaring a “mandate”, though, and I won’t say otherwise. The choice here was so clear and well defined, and the margin wide enough, that if Bush in 2004 was afforded a mandate, then Obama in 2008 is easily more so.

And it’s in the same sense that a new hire at a company for a high-profile position is given a mandate: we now put the power to make big decisions in his hands, and the trust to use it. It’s a gamble. A mandate isn’t a T-bill, it’s a measured risk. And new hires sometimes don’t work out, or perform as well as they interview. But the mandate gives them the time to prove themselves if that’s what they’re going to do.

3 P Mike November 5, 2008 at 11:50 am

I would be interested to see someone calculate resutls if African Americans had voted consistent with historical numbers in terms of number voting and the historical trend.  In the absence of such analysis, it is unfair to claim this as a victory over racism, although my impression there is a triumph of pro-black racisim in the Obama victory. 
In the spirit of musing:
Traditional American conservatism lost when McCain got the Republican ticket. 
McCain proved himself totally at odds with conservatives when he (or his campaign) muzzled Palin.

The rather famous Couric question that was bobbled by Palin — it was a really bad question (who gets their world view from magazines?) and I’m not sure what answer would have been aceptable.  

        I don’t know if I could have answered any better, and any answer I cna think of would have been crippling.  In retrospect, I think Palin was trying to avoid criticism of the answer by not answering.  Has this question (or a similar one) ever been asked of a male candidate?  I’m pretty sure I could predict an honest Bill Clinton response.

4 CosmicConservative November 5, 2008 at 12:02 pm

I agree that Obama’s "mandate" is quite comparable to Bush’s "mandate" in 2004. And there is no doubt that the very people who screamed loudest in 2004 that Bush had no mandate will be the same ones today gloating over Obama’s mandate and all that implies.

There is no tradition so revered and honored in politics as rank, dishonest hypocrisy.

CosmicConservative’s last blog post..A beautiful new day?

5 Brian Tiemann November 5, 2008 at 12:03 pm

A 95-4% margin in Obama’s favor among African-Americans? Yeah, I should say you’re right, P Mike.

6 Aziz Poonawalla November 5, 2008 at 12:26 pm

a triumph of pro-black racisim in the Obama victory.

I don’t see what you’re getting at, unless you’re saying that the only reason the average African-American voted for Obama was the color of his skin. Its as offensive and condescending as arguing that the people who didnt vote for him had the same reason.

It’s also belied by teh fact that the AA vote has been strongly democratic for the past N elections anyway. Yes, Obama won some X% more of the AA vote than Kerry. But Obama also won some Y% more of the white vote – male and female alike. The bottom line is that turnout increased, and enthusiasm increased, and Obama rode the wave of everyone’s support. To dismiss it as some kind of affirmative action election is to place yourself on the wrong side of history.

Obama never claimed, and none of his supporters ever believed, that Obama’s victory would herald the end of racism, and anyone who tries to argue that liberals should just shut up now about racism is also deluding themselves. As I argued at my post, Obama’s election isnt the end of racism, its an opening of a door that lets us cicrumvent it. As long as there are races. there will always be racism, in all directions and between all vertices of the racial polygon. Mild prejudice is natural, and (in moderation) even healthy, as long as it is not unjust. All of us reside in this particular glass house and there is no shame in it, because for the most part the "better angels of our nature" dominate.

But today, we as a nation – all of us, even the ones who did NOT vote for Obama – set teh stage for post-racial politics. Not aracial politics, but post-racial – in other words, the true Dream of MLK where race exists, but doesn’t matter.

7 CosmicConservative November 5, 2008 at 1:02 pm

I find myself in uncommon agreement with Aziz on the point about AA voting for Obama. It’s hard to pin that on any sort of "racism" when blacks have voted so overwhelmingly for Democrats for so long already.

In fact it is pretty clear to me that Democrats have managed to convince virtually every "protected class" to vote overwhelmingly for Democrats no matter how little Democrats have done for them. This successful painting of the Republicans as the party of bigotry has led to Democrat victories and the near-total dominance of Democrat voting in growing segments of the population.

Republicans are destined to becoming a minority party if they can’t somehow break the Democrat monopoly on the entitlement and/or resentment vote.

This is beyond ironic when it is realized that Republicans ended slavery, forced through the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and are in general the party of opportunity and color-blindness.

But as I have so often noted, facts are meaningless these days. All that matters is perception…

CosmicConservative’s last blog post..A beautiful new day?

8 Dave Price November 5, 2008 at 1:18 pm

The Bradley effect involves people’s tendency to lie to pollsters and relates to the difference between polls and outcome, not between one election and another.  Try to have some idea what you’re talking about.

As for leading the free world and Muslim appreciation: Bush freed 50 million people, nearly all Muslims, and ended two heinously repressive regimes that were major terrorist sponsors.  I doubt Obama will manage anything so bold. Symbol, meet substance.

The world celebrates that we’ve elected someone who will put the world’s wishes ahead of America’s. I look forward to much pleading on the floor of the UN.

9 Hank Barnes November 5, 2008 at 1:36 pm

I guess my question would be"Mandate to do what?"

Obama didn’t win on any bold philosophical policy debates about the size of government, the role of the US in the world, or the like. 

Obama won because many people were sick of Bush, sick of Republicans, tired of the Iraq War (regardless of outcome) and genuinely impressed with Obama’s life story and demeanor.

HB 

10 Dave Price November 5, 2008 at 1:53 pm

A 95-4% margin in Obama’s favor among African-Americans? Yeah, I should say you’re right, P Mike.

I’m sure if whites had gone 95% for McCain we’d be hearing about racism.

Shrug.  The Dems have always quite openly appealed to minority racism; affirmative action is nothing if not institutionalized racism (in the name of social justice, of course, but no less racist for that).  

Minority racism is much more accepted than white racism, which is why we have the Congressional Black Caucus and Black History Month but the idea of a Congressional White Caucus or White History Month would be unthinkable (try to imagine a month dedicated to "the proud accomplishments of the white race" and you’ll see what I mean).

Maybe now that Obama’s been elected we can start to become a colorblind society, ignoring the color of people’s skin and judging them on the content of their character.  Some guy had a dream about that once…

11 CosmicConservative November 5, 2008 at 2:49 pm

Dave:

If you think Obama’s election and reign as President is going to DIMINISH race as an issue in this country…

… well, I’m just saying….

CosmicConservative’s last blog post..A beautiful new day?

12 zach November 5, 2008 at 3:09 pm

dave,

apples to oranges.  whites have not historically broken 95/4 in other races in the past.

13 Scott November 5, 2008 at 9:23 pm

Zach,

They vote overwheliming Democrat.  One of the reasons that AAs vote overwheliming Democrat is that the Dems have convinced them that the GOP is completely racist

So your argument boils down to "since AAs have voted uniformly in the past for racial/racist reasons it means they didn’t vote for racial/racist reasons this election"

Which is absurd.

14 deadrody November 5, 2008 at 9:34 pm

Good one.  Mandate.  I don’t give a rat’s ass about the popular vote (which doesn’t in ANY way indicate a mandate anyhow) or the electoral vote totals.  The simple fact of the matter is that in the crucial swing states, self identification by ideology put self described "liberals" at no better than 20-22%.  If anyone thinks this election is some kind of mandate for a far left agenda, you are 1) very very wrong, and 2) will find out the hard way in 2010. 

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