A Nuclear Jonestown

On November 18, 1978, in the largest induced mass death of Americans until 9/11, over nine hundred people in a small community in Guyana committed suicide, most voluntarily.  Major media and Congressional investigations shortly before the tragedy gave no hint of what was to occur and were in fact generally supportive of the religio-socialist experiment.  Before the mass suicide, the group’s leaders made a will leaving their major assets to the Communist Part of the Soviet Union.  Below is one of the notes left behind:

 Dad I see no way out – I agree with your decision – I fear only that without you the world may not make it to communism – Tish For my part – I am more than tired of this wretched, merciless planet & the hell it holds for the masses of so many beautiful people – thank you for the only life I’ve known.

Communists were generally not known for religious fervor or exercises in suicide, but it now appears Barack Obama has committed to a policy of nuclear deterrence with Islamic extremists, who practice both with marked enthusiasm.

A promise of massive American nuclear retaliation against an Iranian nuclear attack is problematic.  Unless the attack were overt, it might be very difficult to trace the attack back to Iran, and regardless of whether this task took a matter of hours, days, or weeks there would be enormous pressure to call off a retaliatory strike that would kill tens of millions of Iranian civilians — and Iran would doubtless threaten to annihilate Europe’s capitals the minute it detected such a response.  So the threat is essentially empty unless Iran is foolish enough to deploy its weapons without subterfuge — and that could be as simple as loading the device into a container ship.

More frighteningly, Iran’s ruling religious zealots simply may not particularly care if there is a retaliatory strike, viewing it as a holy event that will transport them to paradise.  Like the leaders of Jonestown, they may believe they are doing the people of Iran a great favor, granting them an eternity of heavenly reward.  At the very least, this outlook may lead them to calculate that a nuclear holocaust is an acceptable risk, hoping their bluff is not called but willing to accept that outcome if it is.

Unfortunately, there is no easy solution to this issue.  An American or Israeli pre-emptive strike can only delay the inevitable.  We can hope for internal regime change and rational Persian leadership, but in the meantime we should be investing heavily in missile defense – and prayer.