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	<title>Comments on: Debating Romer&#8217;s Research</title>
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	<link>http://deanesmay.com/2009/01/12/debating-romers-research/</link>
	<description>Defending the liberal tradition in history, science, and philosophy.</description>
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		<title>By: Paul S.</title>
		<link>http://deanesmay.com/2009/01/12/debating-romers-research/#comment-167418</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul S.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Jan 2009 16:01:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://deanesmay.com/2009/01/12/debating-romers-research/#comment-167418</guid>
		<description>&lt;em&gt;mortgages by issuing bonds and other financial instruments that were so complicated most people could not understand the risk.&lt;/em&gt;Â 

This isÂ a really trivial statement.Â Â It&#039;s not yet 10am and IÂ can think ofÂ a bunch of items I&#039;ve used today that &quot;most&quot; peopleÂ (myself included) wouldn&#039;t understand with any depth(microwave, internal combustion engine, satellite radio, etc).Â Â 

With any asset backed by mortgages (regardless of the structure) the risk is always that the mortgages won&#039;t pay.Â Â  Mortgages don&#039;t pay, investment doesn&#039;t pay.Â  I don&#039;t think it is that complicated to understand.Â  Clearly the risk was underestimated, but I don&#039;t know that it was misunderstood.Â Â 
Â 
&lt;em&gt;So much investment capital flowed into these risky mortgage back securities because people were desperately looking for investments with a good return. There was just too much investment capital and not enough good things to invest it in.
&lt;/em&gt;
Again, this makes little sense to me, at least on the surface.Â  I&#039;m just trying to imagine the scenario where someone had so much money, but stock market returns weren&#039;t good enough, so they went out and bought a bunch of CMOs?Â  And this was so widespread that it became a &quot;big&quot; contributing factor?Â </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>mortgages by issuing bonds and other financial instruments that were so complicated most people could not understand the risk.</em>Â </p>
<p>This isÂ a really trivial statement.Â Â It&#8217;s not yet 10am and IÂ can think ofÂ a bunch of items I&#8217;ve used today that &quot;most&quot; peopleÂ (myself included) wouldn&#8217;t understand with any depth(microwave, internal combustion engine, satellite radio, etc).Â Â </p>
<p>With any asset backed by mortgages (regardless of the structure) the risk is always that the mortgages won&#8217;t pay.Â Â  Mortgages don&#8217;t pay, investment doesn&#8217;t pay.Â  I don&#8217;t think it is that complicated to understand.Â  Clearly the risk was underestimated, but I don&#8217;t know that it was misunderstood.Â Â <br />
Â <br />
<em>So much investment capital flowed into these risky mortgage back securities because people were desperately looking for investments with a good return. There was just too much investment capital and not enough good things to invest it in.<br />
</em><br />
Again, this makes little sense to me, at least on the surface.Â  I&#8217;m just trying to imagine the scenario where someone had so much money, but stock market returns weren&#8217;t good enough, so they went out and bought a bunch of CMOs?Â  And this was so widespread that it became a &quot;big&quot; contributing factor?Â </p>
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		<title>By: Eric Rall (Maniakes)</title>
		<link>http://deanesmay.com/2009/01/12/debating-romers-research/#comment-167401</link>
		<dc:creator>Eric Rall (Maniakes)</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Jan 2009 00:42:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://deanesmay.com/2009/01/12/debating-romers-research/#comment-167401</guid>
		<description>Mortgage backed securities aren&#039;t new. They date back to &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.riskglossary.com/link/mortgage_backed_security.htm&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;1970&lt;/a&gt;. The MBS bubble was caused by the housing bubble (and fed back into it in turn, but the housing bubble started first, in the &lt;a href=&quot;http://biggestpurchase.com/CaseShillerGraph.jpg&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;late 90s&lt;/a&gt;), which broke the formulas used by regulators and bond rating agencies to evaluate the riskiness of MBSs, so MBSs based on increasingly risky underlying loans still appeared safe.

Regardless of the cause of the bubble, it&#039;s clear there&#039;s a shortage of investment capital right now. You said yourself, &quot;You donâ€™t want to be a business that needs to borrow money at the moment.&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mortgage backed securities aren&#8217;t new. They date back to <a href="http://www.riskglossary.com/link/mortgage_backed_security.htm" rel="nofollow">1970</a>. The MBS bubble was caused by the housing bubble (and fed back into it in turn, but the housing bubble started first, in the <a href="http://biggestpurchase.com/CaseShillerGraph.jpg" rel="nofollow">late 90s</a>), which broke the formulas used by regulators and bond rating agencies to evaluate the riskiness of MBSs, so MBSs based on increasingly risky underlying loans still appeared safe.</p>
<p>Regardless of the cause of the bubble, it&#8217;s clear there&#8217;s a shortage of investment capital right now. You said yourself, &quot;You donâ€™t want to be a business that needs to borrow money at the moment.&quot;</p>
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		<title>By: mikeca</title>
		<link>http://deanesmay.com/2009/01/12/debating-romers-research/#comment-167399</link>
		<dc:creator>mikeca</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Jan 2009 00:27:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://deanesmay.com/2009/01/12/debating-romers-research/#comment-167399</guid>
		<description>&quot;The major speculative bubble whose popping triggered this crisis was real estate, not equities.&quot;

Yes, but the real estate bubble was funded by mortgages given to people on terms they could never be expected to repay (subprime loans). That was made possible by creating a whole new funding mechanism for home mortgages by issuing bonds and other financial instruments that were so complicated most people could not understand the risk. So much investment capital flowed into these risky mortgage back securities because people were desperately looking for investments with a good return. There was just too much investment capital and not enough good things to invest it in.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&quot;The major speculative bubble whose popping triggered this crisis was real estate, not equities.&quot;</p>
<p>Yes, but the real estate bubble was funded by mortgages given to people on terms they could never be expected to repay (subprime loans). That was made possible by creating a whole new funding mechanism for home mortgages by issuing bonds and other financial instruments that were so complicated most people could not understand the risk. So much investment capital flowed into these risky mortgage back securities because people were desperately looking for investments with a good return. There was just too much investment capital and not enough good things to invest it in.</p>
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		<title>By: Eric Rall (Maniakes)</title>
		<link>http://deanesmay.com/2009/01/12/debating-romers-research/#comment-167396</link>
		<dc:creator>Eric Rall (Maniakes)</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Jan 2009 00:13:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://deanesmay.com/2009/01/12/debating-romers-research/#comment-167396</guid>
		<description>The major speculative bubble whose popping triggered this crisis was real estate, not equities. A capital gains tax cut would make it easier for companies with strong long-term fundamentals to raise capital to ride out the crisis without cutbacks.

It&#039;s important to note that investment is a form of consumption. Acme, Inc issues a share of stock and sells it to me for $20. Acme then spends that $20 on salaries, equipment, materials, buildings, etc. That investment stimulates demand just as much as if I bought $20 worth of government bonds and the government spent that money building bridges. The only difference is that Acme expects to turn a profit.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The major speculative bubble whose popping triggered this crisis was real estate, not equities. A capital gains tax cut would make it easier for companies with strong long-term fundamentals to raise capital to ride out the crisis without cutbacks.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s important to note that investment is a form of consumption. Acme, Inc issues a share of stock and sells it to me for $20. Acme then spends that $20 on salaries, equipment, materials, buildings, etc. That investment stimulates demand just as much as if I bought $20 worth of government bonds and the government spent that money building bridges. The only difference is that Acme expects to turn a profit.</p>
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		<title>By: Paul S.</title>
		<link>http://deanesmay.com/2009/01/12/debating-romers-research/#comment-167394</link>
		<dc:creator>Paul S.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Jan 2009 22:52:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://deanesmay.com/2009/01/12/debating-romers-research/#comment-167394</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m having a real hard time coming up with an economic explanation as to how a dollar spent by government creates so much more wealth than the same dollar spent by an individual.Â  

Mikeca,

&lt;em&gt;Second, there is a reasonable argument that one of the big contributing factors to the current crises is there was too much investment capital chasing too few investment opportunities. This caused the capital to slowly flow into more and more speculative investments.&lt;/em&gt;

That&#039;s interesting, but I have my doubts, at least asÂ a &quot;big&quot; contributing factor that is unique to today&#039;s troubles.Â  Can you point me to a link, article, economist, whoever that makes this argument, I would like to read more.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m having a real hard time coming up with an economic explanation as to how a dollar spent by government creates so much more wealth than the same dollar spent by an individual.Â  </p>
<p>Mikeca,</p>
<p><em>Second, there is a reasonable argument that one of the big contributing factors to the current crises is there was too much investment capital chasing too few investment opportunities. This caused the capital to slowly flow into more and more speculative investments.</em></p>
<p>That&#8217;s interesting, but I have my doubts, at least asÂ a &quot;big&quot; contributing factor that is unique to today&#8217;s troubles.Â  Can you point me to a link, article, economist, whoever that makes this argument, I would like to read more.</p>
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		<title>By: mikeca</title>
		<link>http://deanesmay.com/2009/01/12/debating-romers-research/#comment-167392</link>
		<dc:creator>mikeca</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Jan 2009 22:26:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://deanesmay.com/2009/01/12/debating-romers-research/#comment-167392</guid>
		<description>I question whether capital gains tax would do much of anything for the economy. First of all, who has any capital gains right now anyway? Second, there is a reasonable argument that one of the big contributing factors to the current crises is there was too much investment capital chasing too few investment opportunities. This caused the capital to slowly flow into more and more speculative investments. To fix the economy we need to stimulate more consumption now, not more investment. 

Ideas such as temporarily waiving the payroll tax for employers do not look viable to me. This may cause some employers to lay off fewer people, but it doesn&#039;t seem to me that it will do much to bost consumption. There are companies that are not in any real trouble right now. (Praise the lord that I appear to be working for one of those). Those companies are unlikely to pass those benefits on to employees. In the short term they would just horde the cash, because cash is king right now. You don&#039;t want to be a business that needs to borrow money at the moment.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I question whether capital gains tax would do much of anything for the economy. First of all, who has any capital gains right now anyway? Second, there is a reasonable argument that one of the big contributing factors to the current crises is there was too much investment capital chasing too few investment opportunities. This caused the capital to slowly flow into more and more speculative investments. To fix the economy we need to stimulate more consumption now, not more investment. </p>
<p>Ideas such as temporarily waiving the payroll tax for employers do not look viable to me. This may cause some employers to lay off fewer people, but it doesn&#8217;t seem to me that it will do much to bost consumption. There are companies that are not in any real trouble right now. (Praise the lord that I appear to be working for one of those). Those companies are unlikely to pass those benefits on to employees. In the short term they would just horde the cash, because cash is king right now. You don&#8217;t want to be a business that needs to borrow money at the moment.</p>
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		<title>By: Dean Esmay</title>
		<link>http://deanesmay.com/2009/01/12/debating-romers-research/#comment-167390</link>
		<dc:creator>Dean Esmay</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Jan 2009 21:48:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://deanesmay.com/2009/01/12/debating-romers-research/#comment-167390</guid>
		<description>Yes I take it back, that one probably would be helpful and might even stand a chance of passing.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes I take it back, that one probably would be helpful and might even stand a chance of passing.</p>
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		<title>By: Eric Rall (Maniakes)</title>
		<link>http://deanesmay.com/2009/01/12/debating-romers-research/#comment-167388</link>
		<dc:creator>Eric Rall (Maniakes)</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Jan 2009 21:25:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://deanesmay.com/2009/01/12/debating-romers-research/#comment-167388</guid>
		<description>Temporarily waiving the payroll tax as Mankiw is proposing would have a huge immediate impact if the employer share is included, as that would immediately cut companies&#039; payroll costs by 7.65% without layoffs. That should stop layoffs by firms that are fundamentally solvent in the long run, and it would likely accelerate when firms start hiring again as the recession bottoms out.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Temporarily waiving the payroll tax as Mankiw is proposing would have a huge immediate impact if the employer share is included, as that would immediately cut companies&#8217; payroll costs by 7.65% without layoffs. That should stop layoffs by firms that are fundamentally solvent in the long run, and it would likely accelerate when firms start hiring again as the recession bottoms out.</p>
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		<title>By: Dean Esmay</title>
		<link>http://deanesmay.com/2009/01/12/debating-romers-research/#comment-167386</link>
		<dc:creator>Dean Esmay</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Jan 2009 21:07:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://deanesmay.com/2009/01/12/debating-romers-research/#comment-167386</guid>
		<description>While some are ideologically tied to tax cuts, I have come to think that most tax cuts can be of only marginal benefit at this time. The few that would make the most dramatic difference--say, getting rid of the capital gains tax--are not going to happen. So it&#039;s mostly a question of how otherwise to stimulate.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>While some are ideologically tied to tax cuts, I have come to think that most tax cuts can be of only marginal benefit at this time. The few that would make the most dramatic difference&#8211;say, getting rid of the capital gains tax&#8211;are not going to happen. So it&#8217;s mostly a question of how otherwise to stimulate.</p>
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		<title>By: Dave Schuler</title>
		<link>http://deanesmay.com/2009/01/12/debating-romers-research/#comment-167384</link>
		<dc:creator>Dave Schuler</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Jan 2009 19:17:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://deanesmay.com/2009/01/12/debating-romers-research/#comment-167384</guid>
		<description>There&#039;s an old rabbinic saying:Â  &quot;When a woman comes from a far country and tells you she&#039;s divorced, believe her.&quot;Â  When people who for reasons other than economic ones want to expand the role of government argue in favor of expanding the role of government with massive bailouts and fiscalÂ  stimulus in the form of a public works program or the like, it&#039;s one thing.Â  When people who for reasons other than economic ones want to cut taxes argue for tax cuts, I similarly take their arguments with a grain of salt.

When people who would normally be calling for a tax cut start arguing in favor of a big public works program, I&#039;ll view it differently.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There&#8217;s an old rabbinic saying:Â  &quot;When a woman comes from a far country and tells you she&#8217;s divorced, believe her.&quot;Â  When people who for reasons other than economic ones want to expand the role of government argue in favor of expanding the role of government with massive bailouts and fiscalÂ  stimulus in the form of a public works program or the like, it&#8217;s one thing.Â  When people who for reasons other than economic ones want to cut taxes argue for tax cuts, I similarly take their arguments with a grain of salt.</p>
<p>When people who would normally be calling for a tax cut start arguing in favor of a big public works program, I&#8217;ll view it differently.</p>
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