Who are these scientists? What esoteric realm of study could produce a result contrary to the oft-pronounced “consensus” on global warming’s predictions? Surely they labor in some tangentially-related field like geology or chemistry, and simply don’t have the broad understanding of climate scientists.Â
Well, believe it or not, these are forecasting scientists, and they are quite adamant that the IPCC’s global warming forecasts are deeply flawed.
We conducted an audit of the procedures described in the IPCC report and found that they clearly violated 72 scientific principles of forecasting (Green and Armstrong 2008). (No justification was provided for any of these violations.) For important forecasts, we can see no reason why any principle should be violated. We draw analogies to flying an aircraft or building a bridge or performing heart surgery—given the potential cost of errors, it is not permissible to violate principles.
UIPDATE: These posts are really better with links, aren’t they? Sorry about that.
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Dave,
Where did you get this quote? Unless I’m blind, which is possible and makes this comment all the more noteworthy, I don’t see a link.
There’s this piece by the founder of The Weather Channel saying Global Warming is a hoax.
That’s a fine link, Kevin, but I’m still interested in finding where Dave’s original pull quote came from. :)
It doesn’t matter where it came from. Global Warming will be presumed "fact" unless we see a mini-ice age, which may in fact be coming. Until then the zealots who promote this "science" will continue to selectively collect, analyze and report data, and will continue to demand that "something" be done.
CosmicConservative’s last blog post..Baby Boomers and the Looming Abyss?
See also –
title=”The Amazing Story Behind The Global Warming Scam”>
I was able to find it in a couple of places; cleanest was here.Â
Teqjack,
That’s the same piece I link.
CC,
A mini ice age won’t do it either. Remember, it’s not "Global Warming" anymore it’s "Climate Change". A mini-ice age would be a "change".
Yu-Ain is right. Seeing that "Global Warming" wasn’t airtight, they’ve changed the terms of the debate:
1. Warming or cooling proves their point.
2. You’re not allowed to disagree.
Well, the reality is that the zealots have overplayed their hand. Current polls show a majority of Americans no longer believe Global Warming is a crisis, and that on the list of issues they want Obama to address in his administration, Global Warming ranked dead last.
CosmicConservative’s last blog post..Baby Boomers and the Looming Abyss?
This is the second time these folks have faced audit from independent scientists; the last was when a group of mathematicians and statisticians found the same thing. This new group is bigger and more emphatic, though.
The answer from the Climate Change Community wll likely be the same as the last: clam up almost completely, and try to dismiss these charges as yesterday’s news.
Regardless if there is global warming or not it’s pretty obvious we have to do something about our ways or there will be no debate to have and no turning back.
 PR: wait… I: wait… L: wait… LD: wait… I: wait…wait… C: wait… SD: wait…
Whenever science becomes a political cause, you can bet the politics subsumes the good science.
That’s because "science" is a merely a method for seeking out truth, nothing more. And, generally speaking, science is supposed to be tentative & provisional — new facts are supposed to change the theory. It was never supposed to be a general theory of everything because, science is limited to a large extent.
At the upper levels, most scientists are simply politicians or fundraisers.
Also, historically, science is used by crusaders to make the case for a popular cause:
1. The eugenics movement was based on science;
2. The environmental movement was based on science;
3. The War on Cancer was based on science;
4. Fighting AIDS is based on science.
All 4 are political movements, using and abusing science to achieve a political end.
Ironically, sometimes that end, is in fact desirable. I like clean water, clean rivers, clean skies — but sadly, that’s more of a byproduct of a zealous green movement that feeds off itself, using "science" to achieve power.
It’s a rough world out there!
HB
Okay, This is how incredibly stupid current democrat leadership people are.
In January 2007, Nancy Pelosi announced the Creation of the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming.
She said,
“…For America to be safe and strong, we must take further decisive action now to free our country of its dependence on foreign energy sources and to confront the rising tide of global warming…..â€
We now fast forward to 2009, to the Chairman of the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming, the illustrious Rep. Edward J. Markey.
Kindly note the first two lines of the web page:
“Greenland is the current epicenter of global warming, with rapid glacial melting producing sea-level rise now, and 20 feet or more later if the entire ice cap melts.
In 2005, a new island appeared off the coast of Greenland, suddenly separated from the mainland by the melting of Greenland’s enormous ice sheet, a development that is being seen as one of the most alarming signs of global warming.†(presumably in spite of the rising 20 foot sea level).
Analysis:
Thesis: Frozen Ice does actually occupy the same volumetric space as does (liquid) water..
Proof: Take a ten ounce tumbler add as many ice cubes as possible, then add water approximately 5 ounces and defrost in your microwave. See how much water overflows on the floor of the microwave oven.
Conclusions:
No water flows over the tumbler.
New Islands will not appear.
But it’s possible that Iceland will turn into another Miami Beach, then, where will we be ?
This our current government — the very same what brought us new Pres. Barack Obama
McK,
Your observation (literally) of the effect of microwaving the ice cubes in the glass are correct.
But the mass of the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps are not in Earth’s oceans. They are situated mainly on dry land. If and when they melt through climate change, the water from the icemelt will be added to the volumetric measure of the earth’s oceans.Â
Rising and falling ocean levels have happened in coincidence with ice ages and their aftermath. I have read some materials written by appropriately credible scientists which show that rising and falling ocean levels may in fact be a regular cycle that starts these ice ages and then reverses them, based on affected ocean currents in the north Atlantic ocean.
But I see little evidence that mankind’s puny efforts are themselves melting the ice masses in either polar hemispheres.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WIÂ
Arnold,
Thank you. I appreciate your reply and will take it under consideration.
For the moment. I will suggest that oceans have no boundary lines, it isn’t measurable and then there is the atmosphere which also is a water containing vessel the content of which isn’t in global warming categories.
Arnold:
Greenland ice sheets are in fact mostly over land. Antarctic ice sheets are not nearly as land-based as Greenland’s. Antarctica, in fact, is near desert. The vast majority of antarctic ice is located in "ice shelfs" which are situated on open ocean, and which will not increase sea levels if they melt. The ice that is on land in Antarcica is not likely to melt in any significant volume unless global temperatures rise far more than even the most catastrophic predictions of the Global Warming zealots.
One of the things that cracks me up in the whole "sea levels rise" debate is that the folks who bring that up as a concern by and large are completely ignorant of where the bulk of the rise is supposed to come from. The models which project a 20 foot rise produce most of that increase in sea water volume NOT from melting ice, but from the EXPANSION of sea water as it warms up. If you warm the entire ocean up, just like a metal rod will expand, so will the sea water.
The problem with the model (at least the last time I looked at it) is that it treats sea water as a single lump of water with an average temperature and an average expansion spread across its entire volume. The reality is that sea water is made up of greatly differentiated areas, including the deep ocean where the crushing weight of the water above it quite literally squeezes the heat out of the water and pretty much forces the water to remain just above freezing world-wide. Only a thin layer on top of the sea actually fluctuates much in temperature based on atmospheric conditions or sunshine. So the model is flawed.
The bottom line is that my own personal analysis of the potential for sea water rise is that predictions of 20 foot sea level rises based on a half-degree or a degree raise in global temperatures is very unlikely. And that’s not even taking into account the historical fact that we’ve SEEN such rises in temperature in historic times without such catastrophic sea rises. Why this time would be different is one thing the zealots never explain.
CosmicConservative’s last blog post..More on the abyss?
In other news, the U.S. Stimulus Package being pushed by the President appears to include an additional $400 million in spending on global warming research.
No one should ever, however, suggest that this kind of money represents a conflict of interest for the scientists pushing the paradigm. That would be an attack on science and all scientists everywhere, living or dead.
Greenland’s  Ice Cap
McKiernan, that’s a good link. Just so you know, the actual sea-level rising models I’ve seen do not assume complete melting of all of the ice in Greenland, they assume some percentage of ice melting based on the rise in temperatures. To melt all of Greenland’s ice would require huge increases in temperature. Even the most pessimistic estimates of temperature rise end up with only a fraction of Greenland’s ice cap actually melting.
At least that’s what it was a decade or so ago when I was deeply involved in examining the models being used. Eventually I lost interest in the models as I concluded they were so riddled with assumptions and so simplistic in execution that they were really no better than wild guesses.
CosmicConservative’s last blog post..Mt. Redoubt set to blow
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