Just as newly minted President Barack Obama appears bearing apologies and overtures of friendship, Iran’s autocrats seem bent on throwing away the last vestiges of democratic legitimacy the regime possessed by crushing protests, killing unarmed protesters, and arresting the presumptive winner of the election. Coincidence? Not likely.
The mullahs’ greatest fear is the synergistic combination of American military power and local unrest. As unpopular as the relentless media assault made Iraq’s successful liberation, there remains a single scenario under which much of the world might welcome U.S. intervention in Iraq’s neighbor: a brazenly stolen election leading to pro-democracy demonstrators dying in the streets, just as Iran is poised to acquire nuclear weapons. By themselves, Iranians probably can’t hope to overcome the secret police, paramilitaries, and Revolutionary Guard but U.S. air support and special forces might be enough to allow a native pro-democracy force to coalesce and march on Tehran en masse, bringing the regime to an end. And the U.S. presence would ensure that the revolution was not hijacked by extremists as it was in 1979.
But with the passing of power from George W. Bush’s hands, the mullahs now have little to fear. The only enemies willing to fight them are largely unarmed, unorganized, unable to seize their moment without assistance that isn’t coming. The result is entirely predictable.
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You are leaving out that the only power in the region able to fight Iran is being actively beaten down by Obama’s administration at this time.
Not sure if W would have intervened though. His experience in being demonized for five years for a war the demonizers actually voted for in the first place probably would have made him think long and hard about any new conflict. Which is why I opposed the Iraq war in the first place, for precisely this reason. I said at the time that the likely result of going to war with Iraq would be to make it impossible for us to go to war with Iran when we needed to.
And that has now come to pass.
It’s gonna be a bad four years folks. This, I’m afraid, is just the beginning. When Israel launches their proactive attack and Obama throws them under the bus, it’s gonna be touch and go in the Middle East, with the nuclear specter hovering over the whole area.
While China teases North Korea about their own opportunities with an American administration that has essentially pledged “peace in our time” with the same likely results as 60 years ago.
I’m not sure W would have intervened either, but Iran would know intervention was at least on the table in a way it very clearly isn’t with Obama.
First of all, I do not pretend to be an expert and it is obvious that you aren’t either, and I hope you didn’t hurt yourself falling into the usual Iran-U.S.-Israel traps.
Trap #1 is that “last vestige of democratic legitimacy.” Unless my memory is faulty, Iran has NEVER had much going for it in the way of democracy and the genesis of the mess we see now is substantially a result of the 1979 embassy hostage siege and subsequent revolution, as well as the Bush administration’s rebuff of Iranian overtures after 9/11. Long story short, U.S. policy toward Iran has be screwed up since Woodrow Wilson was president.
Trap #2 is your U.S.-centric view of everything that occurs in Tehran and that Obama’s annoying habit of trying to open dialogues with enemies as opposed to the saber rattling of his predecessor is solving erectile dysfunction problems in Qum.
Trap #3 is your implicit support of the Netanyahu-U.S. neocon axis, which would like nothing more than Israeli air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, a foolish move that almost certainly would drag the U.S. into a war. We’ve got two wars going already; why would you want a third?
True Dave, the fear of a possible reprisal would most likely have mitigated some of the Iranian actions. And North Korean, etc. But even W had lost much of his mojo because of internal U.S. partisan political opportunism which had already marginalized W considerably. Our opportunity to do something about Iran more or less died when the Democrats began aggressively advancing their “Iraq is Vietnam all over again” strategy and the Republicans rolled over like a bunch of beaten dogs.
shaun:
Thanks for proving my point about why we can’t engage Iran militarily now. Excellent example of the mindset I was talking about.
Isn’t it illuminating how frequently people like Shaun resort to sexual imagery at the drop of a hat? Very instructive, that.
CC:
Read my post again. I state that the U.S. would most likely be drawn into a war whether it wants to be, so Obama’s point of view — of primary importance to you — certainly would be subsumed.
Speaking of mindsets, why do people like yourself operate from a presumption that war would be a not bad thing as opposed to trying to figure out ways to preclude one?
shaun:
Why do people like you accuse people like me of not trying to figure out ways to preclude one?
The best way to avoid war is to prepare for war. Geopolitics is not much different than a school playground. If you want to stop the bullies from taking over, you have to be prepared to punch them in the nose from time to time.
This is not an academic debate shaun. The real world is playing out in real time right in front of us. Stay tuned and pay attention, and we’ll see how successful Obama’s attempts to appease and “reason with” our sworn enemies turns out to be.
CC:
I am unaware that the U.S. is not prepared for war. Yes, our forces are stretched awfully thin because of a war that did not have to be fought and a war that did but was bled because of the other way.
Your schoolyard analogy is so Cheney: The best way to keep the peace is to bully other nations.
Hey, did you catch Ahmadinejad stealing a trick from the conservative Republican play book by calling the people at his rallies “real Iranians?”
shaun:
Do you ever get tired of playing childish partisan games and demonizing your opponents? Seriously. Playing the “Darth Cheney” card is sooo 2008 shaun.
So shaun, if a bully keeps punching you in the nose, and one day you punch him back, does that make you a bully too?
I guess Obama, Hillary and a host of Democrats are stealing “conservative Republican” plays every time they refer to “real Americans.” I guess it’s good to know that “real Americans” is a phrase that originated from conservatives. That’s good to know. Now if we could only get Democrats to stop stealing it. lol.
Being prepared for war means more than having weapons and men at arms. It means having the will to use them. Right now I would say that the United States is DEFINITELY unprepared for war.
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