Iran is a nation of bloggers – and the revolution will be twittered.
One of the things I am thankful for is the restraint shown by the Obama Administration. The legitimacy and enduring power of the Green Revolution would be tainted by overly active US meddling. The stunning reversal of Khamenei is proof that we are doing something right by not doing anything at all.
UPDATE: wise words from Bill Kristol. This isn’t about us.
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The “stunning reversal” of Khamenei is nothing at this time but a promise to investigate a letter from the “loser” of the election.
My cynical opinion is that it is nothing more than an attempt to pull the wool over the eyes of gullible people while Khamenei cleans up things in his sham government. I have no doubt it will have exactly that effect. There are a lot of people who are actively willing to participate in their own hoodwinking.
If the Guardian Council certifies Ahmadinejad’s victory, it will inflame the people more. The rally yesterday in Enqelab Square soiled the mullah’s pants. Even notable bigwigs like Rafsanjani and Khatami are coming out in favor of redoing the election. The tension here is internal and the regime is afraid.
By even invoking the Guardian Council, Khamenei has opened a pandoras box. He could have simply said nothing and this wouldnt have taken on the force of legitimacy at all. hes fucked himself if he really wasnt going to abide by the request for invetigation, for no reason.
Oh, and on the “wise words” from Bill Kristol… boy I sure remember how the Left was all about such wisdom for the past 8 years. We’ll just forget about such things as ads in the NY Times on “General Betray Us” and how Bush went to war for Halliburton, etc. What a laugh. There may have been a day when such wisdom was heeded, but when the Democrat party rode a wave of politicizing just such events as these to total political victory, well, Republicans are many things, but stupid isn’t one of them. When your opponent in a street fight picks up a stick, you better pick one up too.
As far as what the mindset of the Iranian “regime” is right now, I think they clearly underestimated the fervor of the Iranian people, and they definitely got mud on their “pants” as you say. But “fear’ is not the emotion I detect from my perspective. “Concern” and even “anger” is what I see. My “guess” is that Khamenei has taken an action which he feels will put a lid on the situation temporarily while he reasserts control.
As far as your assertion that invoking the Guardian Council has opened a “pandora’s box”, well, if that body had wanted to do anything about a corrupt, theocratic, authoritarian regime, they’ve had plenty of chances in the past and I haven’t seen them take any action to make Iran a more liberal, free and open society. I suppose there is some risk involved here that the Council might see this as an opportunity to assert some heretofor unseen “authority” or power in Iran, but even if that is true, I can’t imagine that the people on that council are much different than Khamenei himself.
My opinion is that Khamenei is playing for time, aware that the mask of “democracy” which gives him some cover in the “civilized world” has slipped and he needs to get it back in place to keep his apologists active and in line.
As with so many things I comment on here Aziz, this is not an academic argument, the reality will play out over the next few weeks. If there is any significant change in Iran’s posture on individual freedoms, the destruction of Israel, the “Death to America” chants, the development of nuclear power and weapons, etc. I will be very surprised.
Let’s check back in a few weeks and see how the breath of freedom is doing in Iran OK?
I’m concerned that the restraint of the Obama administration will embolden Khamenei. Historically, popular revolutions tend to be ineffective if the full security apparatus of an authoritarian state is deployed to surpress them. For a revolution to succeed, you generally need one of these things to happen:
1. The regime chooses not surpress the revolution, out of fear of outside intervention or out of lack of will.
2. The army, police, etc either join the revolution or refuse orders to crush it.
3. The rebels are armed, trained, and organized well enough to defeat the army and police in battle. This is extremely rare in authoritarian societies.
4. An outside power actively supports the rebels.
I don’t know enough about Iran’s internal politics to evaluate the likelihood of 2 or 3, but Obama’s restraint is making 1 and 4 much less likely.
Eric, you’re making the mistake here of lumping the Khamenei faction in with the military/pasdaran/ahmadinejad faction. i am no expert on iranian politics but its not wise to compress them into one faceless mass. theres a lot going on here more than a simplistic bad-good guy narrative would suggest.
Moussavi is in fact as much a member of the establishment as Khamanei – and Rafsajani is also an insider. This is the key point i am making – change will be structural along existing power pathways rather than a total sweeping out of the old. Reform is not a revolution, rhetoric aside. Its a process.
Factionalism is an inherent part of being human. If we don’t have real reasons for factions, we’ll invent them.
Ahmedinejad sees Khamenei as a doddering old fool, to be fed convenient fables. I think Khamenei is starting to realize that.
For himself, I think Ahmedinejad actually believes the stories of him manifesting an aura at the UN. I think he’s integrated that into his personal belief system. I don’t think he’s left any room that would allow for graceful failure – like losing his Presidency. There’s no room left to acknowledge his own incompetence (like the botched rigging of the election).
To my mind, the real question is whether or not Khamenei and everyone else (Rafsanjani) are willing to be quietly shoved to the side by Ahmedinejad. I don’t think Ahmedinejad will accept anything less at this point.
I do like the subtance of your post, Aziz. If I may jest a bit, though, on one trivial point:
I am thankful for is the restraint shown by the Obama Administration.
Methinks a deer caught in the headlights demonstrates a similar type of restraint:)
Look, this is a corrupted election — specifically, corrupted by the Mullahs in power. God Bless the Iranian people for resisting.
True, America, with good intentions, often bungles things up in foreign misadventures. Ultimately, Iran can only be reformed from within, by citizens who have a stake in the reformation. So, true, Obama’s inaction is probably the best approach, only because it is not clear what the proper action by the US should be, or, if any U.S. action should be taken at all.
As for words, the clock is ticking. Silence doesn’t help the people seeking freedom. At a minimum, the President should make a speech acknowledging the brave citizens who seek to expose this farce, and who seek to live in freedom.
–HB
Obama is very much a “deer in headlights” here. He can’t make the speech you are looking for, extolling the virtues of freedom and the importance of the Iranian people taking control of their own lives, without sounding exactly like GW Bush, who did those things repeatedly in similar circumstances. Obama is afraid that if he does so, his attempts to appease and apologize to the Khameneis of the world will be wasted. Of course the irony there is that such efforts are wasted by definition, as has been exposed by this turmoil in Iran in the first place. But you can’t expect Obama to see something his ideology has told him can’t exist. So we get an Obama administration naively and inappropriately praising the “robustness” of the process as people are shot in the streets.
Again, imagine if someone other than Obama had trotted out such pathetic platitudes in such a situation.
I wonder how long its gonna take this country and this world to wake up to reality.
Hi CC,
I’m a bit less of an Obama critic than are you (and less of an Obama-butt kisser than Aziz).
But much of what you say is right.
Sometimes it is difficult to tell the good guys from the bad guys.
But this is NOT one of those times. The people in Iran being clubbed and beaten because they are in the midst of an electoral farce are the good guys. The Mullahs in power, those are the bad guys.
The simple question President Obama should be asking is, What can I say or do to help the good guys?
Unfortunately, the question he is asking is:
“What can I say or do that doesn’t provoke Iran, because I need them somewhat on board to distinguish my foreign policy from that of my predecessor’s, which was too provocative about their nuclear threat and too accommodating to Israel, who I view as the obstacle to peace in the middle east?”
Because the question is so convoluted, he remains silent — but I salute his restraint:)
–HB
My buddy Joe Lieberman hits the high note on this far better than anyone:
WASHINGTON, DC — Senator Joseph I. Lieberman (ID-CT) today issued the following statement:
“Over the last six months, we have witnessed free and fair elections in Iraq and Lebanon, in which millions of people peacefully went to the polls, and in both cases, the Iranian-backed forces of extremism were decisively rejected at the ballot box.
“Unfortunately, on Friday, the Iranian people were denied this right, enjoyed by Iraqis and Lebanese and so many other peoples throughout the world, to determine the future of their country for themselves. Instead, through intimidation, violence, manipulation, and outright fraud, the Iranian regime has once again made a mockery of democracy, and confirmed its repressive and dictatorial character.
“We as Americans have a responsibility to stand in solidarity with people when they are denied their rights by repressive regimes. When elections are stolen, our government should protest. When peaceful demonstrators are beaten and silenced, we have a duty to raise our voices on their behalf. We must tell the Iranian people that we are on their side.
“For this reason, I would hope that President Obama and members of both parties in Congress will speak out, loudly and clearly, about what is happening in Iran right now, and unambiguously express their solidarity with the brave Iranians who went to the polls in the hope of change and who are now looking to the outside world for strength and support.”
–HB
Nicely stated Joe.
Silence by Obama reflects neither policy, nor restraint.
It’s just silence, even one that may portend lack of policy.
McK:
Obama’s silence, in my opinion, is best explained by his desire to exploit every situation to his advantage. Right now there is nothing to exploit, so he’ll wait until there is something he can.
There is no need to postulate any more sinister or complex reason behind Obama’s silence. This is standard operating procedure for the man.
While Obama is getting his teleprompters up to speed , this seems to be one of his better current international policies.
http://atangledweb.squarespace.com/httpatangledwebsquarespace/a-contrast-in-reality.html
Okay, I forget.
From whence did any Ayatollah or any mullah get political power over the entirety of the Irani people ?
Please explain.
From Allah, McK, all you have to do is ask them. They’ll tell you. And they might even let you live afterwards.
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