Breaking news: the Iraq war is still over — and won.
I think this makes it official: the liberal Brookings Institution is apparently no longer bothering to update their Iraq Index, with the last update having been done on September 1st. Final score: 8500-11000 MW of power (vs. 4000 prewar), vastly improved access to potable water/sanitation/trash removal, something like five hundred times as many cellphones, a million people with Internet access in a country that previously had essentially none, a tripling of GDP, billions in foreign investment, national debt halved, and thousands of trained judges. Even the endemic fuel shortages appear much ameliorated, with the number of Iraqis saying they had good access to fuel rising from 19% in 2008 to 68% this year. Oh yeah, and a fairly liberal Arab constitutional democracy with basic rights for minorities, including the rights of voting, free press, free assembly, and free speech.
Meanwhile, the security situation in Iraq is better than ever (and far, far better than the average ~7,000 a month killed under Saddam), with icasualties reporting an incredibly low 158 deaths total in September — the lowest ever recorded.
This is all lending an odd, even surreal quality to the Afghanistan debate, where the “surrender now!” coalition (largely composed of people who, like Obama, vehemently insisted for years that our conflict in the Hindu Kush was the really important war that Bush should have been focused on) assiduously avoid mentioning (or, presumably, even thinking about) the awful reality of the profound, thoroughgoing American victory in Iraq they all said was impossible or even undesirable.
For them, Iraq is still literally the unthinkable victory. If they want to lay any claim to credible analysis of ongoing events in the GWOT, they will need to start acknowledging this basic, painful fact: we won.
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Iraq is now firmly lodged under the White House carpet, never to be spoken of in polite company. This will soon be joined by the Honduran Debacle.
The president is furiously trying to cram Afghanistan into reverse gear without anyone noticing.
Meanwhile, unilateral disarmament in Europe has led in turn to Russia declaring a new policy of pre-emptive nuclear strikes against conventional enemies. And refusing to help with sanctions against Iran. Clinton declares victory as she wipes the egg from her face.
Every time Obama opens his mouth, North Korea crams another missile test down his throat. Iran keeps cooking with (Uranium Hexafloride) gas.
Diplomacy! It’s the new Apathy.
At this point it appears safe to say that Iraq is now in the same category as President Clinton’s amazing success in the Balkans. Unheralded, unrecognized, and simply astonishing.
No Iraq isn’t perfect. Yes Iraq still has problems. But it is in the best shape it’s ever been in.
President Obama deserves credit–at least for now–for keeping us on the right path. President Bush deserves credit for making it happen. Shoes thrown at him and all.
Unless this administration really makes a bonehead move, Iraq is swiftly becoming this generation’s South Korea: that strange place we once went which we no longer think about, but is a thriving center of commerce and freedom.
Those who made it happen–the U.S. Armed Forces–will of course go unthanked. As they usually do.
Iraq is certainly on the right track. But the battle there is not over yet. Iran is rising, and as they see how easy it is to push Obama around, they will increase their attempts to destabilize Iraq. In part Iran has had their hands full with their internal messes for the past year or so, but as that settles down look for more direct involvement from Iran in Iraq.
I’m keeping my fingers crossed, but Iraq is not South Korea yet.
Oh, and as far as the armed forces being unthanked is concerned, I don’t see that. I see plenty of appreciation heaped on our brave soldiers. Certainly far more than during Vietnam.
What you don’t see is any acknowledgement of that in the mainstream media or from the Obama administration. (Which is sort of redundant, I know…)
Cosmic: Yeah you’re right about the continuing concerns there. But seriously, I remember very well those who were trying to tell us that Iraq was about to become “an Islamic Republic in the orbit of Iran.” Which was nonsense from the beginning.
It was never going to happen. And it continues not to happen, because it can’t.
South Korea was Harry Truman’s greatest achievement. Almost no one recognizes this. Iraq is the same. Yes, Iraq still has many problems, but it’s on the best path it’s ever been in. All the current administration has to do is keep doing what they’re doing.
Dean:
Yes and no. The Obama administration has to be savvy enough to anticipate what Iran will try to do and put things in place to neutralize them.
My opinion of this administration so far is that they are not remotely competent enough to do that. Besides their unbelieveable naivetee in geopolitical affairs, they just don’t care that much about foreign countries. They’ve got bigger fish to fry at home.
I hope I’m wrong. But my predictions on Obama’s foreign policy disasters have so far been pretty darn good. And most of my predictions are made based on the fundamental assumption that Obama and his team are totally fracking incompetent and completely unconcerned about the lives of actual people living in other countries. Add to that my belief that Obama and his insiders are sort of sweet on despotic tyrants, and that accounts for the rest of my success as a prognosticator.
We’ll see how things go. As I said, I’m keeping my fingers crossed, but my own personal opinion is that it’s pretty much in the hands of the people of Iraq now because Obama will sell them down the river at the slightest hint that his precious social-democrat domestic agenda might be threatened. And when confronted with any evidence of his incompetence, he’ll just smile at the camera and blame Bush.
Like he’s doing with Afghanistan now, for example.
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